2014 Outlook, part 6

By Randell Tiongson on January 14th, 2014

It is always a pleasure to present the views of one of the persons I admire a lot, a former colleague and now the CEO of the country’s largest life insurance company, Riza Gervasio Mantaring. A marathon runner, Riza’s disciplined approach in life helped her propel Sun Life to the top spot. I also admire Ms. Mantaring’s passion to help improve the nation’s financial literacy through many endeavors.

 

The 2014 Outlook of Riza Mantaring

2013 was the proverbial “start with a bang, end with a whimper” year. While fundamentals in the Philippines remained solid, changes in the external environment dragged the market down so that we basically ended the year back where we started.

So as we start 2014, to what do we have to look forward?

The first half of the year is likely to be volatile as the US winds down its economic stimulus program given its improving economy. Performance of its equity markets in 2013 has been stellar, reflecting the outflow of funds from developing economies back to the more developed markets.

Inflation may creep upwards, possibly curbing spending which has been driving our economy. In terms of public spending, government rehabilitation efforts in quake and typhoon-hit areas may somewhat offset the withdrawal of the PDAF and DAP, and hopefully PPP projects finally get underway at the pace necessary to sustain growth.

With an expectation of higher inflation,  we may see local bond rates continue to creep up.  Likewise, with a weaker earnings growth expectation from the banking sector, we are anticipating lower aggregate earnings growth for the market.

Still, despite a possibly volatile first half of 2014, the second half of the year should be more positive as we get better indicators on company earnings growth and the progress of government infrastructure spending. Longer term, the Philippines remains a favored destination and is forecast to continue its rapid growth over the next few years.

As to where the market will end?  We expect a base scenario of 6500 for the Phisix, possibly reaching 6800.  Remember, though, that the best time to buy is when the news is negative, not when it is positive!

 

riza mantaringRiza Mantaring is the President & CEO of the Sun Life Financial group of companies in the Philippines, and a member of its various boards.She started out in Information Technology and took on various roles through her 20+ years at Sun Life before becoming CEO.

Riza is a member of the Sun Life Asia Leadership Team.  She has also participated in various international special projects and teams such as the task force for worldwide restructuring of the company, the task force for business processes, and special teams for Mergers & Acquisitions.

In 2010, on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the University of the Philippines College of Engineering, she was selected one of the 100 Most Outstanding Alumni of the past century. In 2011, she was named by Moneysense Magazine one of the 12 Most Influential in Personal Finance, and became a recipient of the 2011 CEO EXCEL award given by the International Association of Business Communicators.  Riza was recognized for bold and innovative programs and harnessing the power of communication to implement these programs, including the multi-awarded and pioneering “It’s Time!” financial literacy advocacy.

Riza graduated with a B.S. Electrical Engineering degree (cum laude) from the University of the Philippines, and an M.S. Computer Science from the State University of New York at Albany.  She has also attended numerous executive development programs conducted by Harvard University, The Wharton School, Duke University, Oxford University, Asian Institute of Management, and The Niagara Institute.  She is a Fellow of the Life Management Institute (with distinction).

She has been a board director of the Philippine Life Insurance Association since 2011 and is currently its Treasurer, and served as a board director of the Philippine Federation of Pre-need Companies from 2006-2008.

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2014 Outlook, part 5

By Randell Tiongson on January 13th, 2014

It is both an honor and privilege to be presenting the views of one of the most respected economist of the country and a very dear colleague, Dr. Alvin Ang. I always run to Dr. Ang for help in anything that deals with economics and he has always been there to help. Aside from being a well respected economist, Dr. Ang’s heart to help uplift the nation is something I have always admired.

The 2014 Outlook of Dr. Alvin P. Ang, Ph

The Philippine Economy in 2014: Bring in the Good out of the Bad

2013 will be one for the history books for what transpired in the Philippines.  The economic performance that outpaced the rest of ASEAN probably grew 7% in 2013.  Backed by the investment upgrades of the major ratings agency, the economic performance helped push equities to all time highs until the middle of the year. Nonetheless, these good reports were soon crowded by external pressures led by the quantitative easing plan by the US Fed and various internal man-made and natural disasters.  All told, strong typhoons hit the north and central areas coupled with the strong earthquake. The Zamboanga incursion and the PDAF issue are big man-made disasters that also barreled through.

Did the bads cancel out the goods? It is very unlikely that the Philippines will reverse its current upward economic growth trend. The reason for this are as follows:

Firstly, the momentum for growth has pushed strong domestic capital formation.  Private sector is building and expanding capacities for production. This is validated by the above 5% growth in durable equipment for the last 8 quarters.  This is confirmed by robust growth in manufacturing which (contributes to about 20% of GDP) is also experiencing a similar above 5% growth in last 8 quarters. The rebound of the US (our largest trading partner) and the becoming expensive China open good opportunities to support export growth. similarly the growth in support services in the BPO, tourism and private construction sector will be modest but will continue to be robustly close to the higher single digit.

Second, the impact of the disasters will push public sector expenditures to even higher levels. Public construction, in particular, is now at 1/3 of private construction. In the past, it hardly reached 1/5.  This will probably be higher in next 3 to 4 years as the reconstruction requirements of the affected regions will require strong government support.  Furthermore, public services expansion in the form of education, health and basic social support to reconstruct human capital formation.  This is already seen in the approved supplemental budget for reconstruction in 2014.  Pressures to ensure proper usage of these funds will make the national budget much more efficient and put to direct use.  Likewise, all forms of aid from international and local sources will continue to come in phases providing additional fund base.

Thirdly, budgetary reforms including the direct use of the approved budget will facilitate expenditures. Moreover, the investment upgrades will allow the country to access the international funds market easily for additional budgetary support.  This is now starting with the launch of the 10 year Philippine Global Fund.

Finally, the OFW remittance will remain as the robust financial support for sustained personal consumption expenditures.  On the monthly basis, the remittances has breach the USD2Bn in October 2013.  For full year 2013, this has probably reached more than USD22Bn or a growth of above 5%. Remittances also is seen to increase to support private reconstruction efforts as anecdotally observed last November – December of 2013 and in previous disasters. This should help lead to a remittance growth of about 7% pushing it to USD 24 Bn this 2014.  All told, these conditions are seen to help push 2014 GDP growth to a low of 7% and possibly to a higher 7.5% as all these go full steam.

The main concern apart from the challenges out of reforms is the physical impact of the disasters.  These have brought damage to agriculture which is connected to food prices which in turn could lead to inflationary pressures. Coupled with the looming increase in electricity rates, households may experience upward price pressures.The quantitative easing also shows that there will be less dollars in the economy than before which depreciate the peso to about 45 to 1. This is good for OFWs and exporters but could also lead to higher prices particularly of imported inputs. Finally, a lot of funds out of the SDA are still in the system and not finding their ways to productive pursuits.  These could challenge the relatively low inflation rate regime we have been experiencing and consequently the low interest environment.  However, we do not see inflation beyond 5% unless significant supply constraints occur in food and electricity.

While GDP growth for 2014 will likely remain at around 7%, price pressures may cause equities to move tentative and upside potential for interest rates for this year. However, more than the price pressures is the opportunity to improve the disaster affected regions.  These have continuously been high poverty and low productivity areas. If the reconstruction is done right – it will be good for long term growth.  Overall, the growth story will be the same but the critical factor is its sustainability and inclusivity.  A growth that is able to expand its base will certainly be better than a one time event.  Investing in the Philippines is believing that its growth potential is becoming broader and larger segments are benefiting.  At this perspective, its present value is still quite affordable.

Blessings for a great 2014 and beyond!

 

Alvin Ang_3_NEWAlvin P. Ang has more than 20 years of professional experience in both public and private sectors.  He started his Economist experience with the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) of the Philippines where he developed his skills in Development Planning, Policy Formulation and Analysis.  He also worked in Investment Research and Economic Forecasting with his stints at the Philippine National Bank and All Asia Capital as Chief Corporate Planner and as Economist, respectively.  Within those periods, he has been teaching part-time at the University of Santo Tomas in Manila.  In 1999, he joined the academe as full-time Faculty member after completing his Master in Public Policy at the National University of Singapore as a Scholar of the Singapore Government.  He went on to complete his Ph.D. in Applied Economics at Osaka University in 2006 as a Japanese Government Scholar.  He has published in renowned journals such as the Review of Development Economics, Asia Pacific Social Science Review, among others.  His research fields are in Labor and Development Economics and his research interests include Privatization and Development Finance.  His researches on Remittances and Economic Growth in the Philippines have been widely circulated.  He has also consulted for the World Bank, World Health Organization, the European Union, Asian Development Bank, International Labor Organization and the USAID on policy matters. He recently won the first prize (together with Jeremaiah Opiniano) in the Outstanding Research for Development in the 2011 Global Development Awards (besting 400 entries worldwide)  held in Bogota, Colombia.  He is a lifetime member of the Philippine Economics Society where he currently the President.  He is an advocate of responsible personal finance and has lectured on this topic in many fora.  Presently, he is a Full Professor of Economics at the University of Santo Tomas.

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2014 Outlook, part 4

By Randell Tiongson on January 10th, 2014

It is such a privilege to be presenting the views of one of the most respected investment columnists in the country, Mr. John Mangun. I have been a fan of his columns for many years and it such an honor to present his views in my series.

 

The 2014 Outlook of John Mangun

Last year as the market was climbing to its historic high, I wrote that there were two possible scenarios. The Philippine Composite Index (PSEi) would climb to 8,000 and then go on to 10,000. Alternatively, the PSEi would fail to make 8,000 and then fall below 6,000. The second forecast became a reality.

The PSEI reached a high of 7,403 and then retreated to its 2013 low of 5,562.

If the PSEi can break and hold 6,000, then it is on track for a move back to its historic high in approximately 200 point increments. That move to the high will take from three to six months and I am inclined to believe it will be the shorter rather than the longer time frame.

However, if the market does not move above and hold the 6,000 level, then all bets are off and a fall below 5,500 is more than likely. But let’s be optimistic and assume for a moment that 6,000 is coming.

When the market reaches its historic high again, then the same scenarios as 2013 will come into play. We will go much higher or the market will move considerably lower, this year to below 5,000.

As there are many factors that lead us to believe that the stock market will hit or come near to its historic high, at that point there is concern that the 7,500 could be the top for several quarters in the future. Again, if the market cannot reach near 8,000, then we are going to see a strong decline to the 5,000. That is not a roller coaster ride you want to be on if it happens.

Normally, the positive economic and corporate results for 2013 should project a favorable stock market for 2104. This year I am not convinced for several reasons. This year, we will take it quarter by quarter and no longer. Therefore, if you are going to invest in stocks, do it now. Then reevaluate in three months. The first quarter of 2014 may be the best market action for the year.

 

Untitled-1Interest in the stock market first hit John Mangun when he was in his early teens, following the stock price action of major companies in the daily newspaper long before the computer.

In 1976, Mr. Mangun earned his license as a stock broker on the New York Stock Exchange as well as being licensed and registered for the Options and Commodity markets.

After working for two major Wall Street firms, Mr. Mangun went to England as head of foreign exchange trading for a British asset management company.

Upon his return to the United States, he formed his own investment advisory company administering to the investment needs of corporations and high-net worth individuals.

Mr. Mangun has actively analyzed and traded the Philippine Stock Exchange since 1989, making his first stock purchase (and losing trade) buying shares of San Miguel Corporation on Friday, November 24th, one week before the 1989 coup attempt.

He has been a regular newspaper columnist, writing about the Philippine economy, business, and stock market since 1996. His website is MangunOnMarkets.com.

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